Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
9732541 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2005 | 13 Pages |
Abstract
In this paper, we explore the consequences for forecasting of the following two facts: first, that over time statistics agencies revise and improve published data, so that observations on more recent events are those that are least well measured. Second, that economies are such that observations on the most recent events contain the largest signal about the future. We discuss a variety of forecasting problems in this environment, and present an application using a univariate model of the quarterly growth of UK private consumption expenditure.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Business, Management and Accounting
Business and International Management
Authors
Richard Harrison, George Kapetanios, Tony Yates,