Ex-ante evaluation of disruptive susceptibility in established value networks—When are markets ready for disruptive innovations?

In this paper, we examine a markets’ readiness for potential disruptive innovations based on past and current conditions. For this purpose, we developed a theoretical framework to evaluate the “disruptive susceptibility” of value networks. Using the construct of disruptive susceptibility, we assess the potential market entry of new companies as sources of disruptive innovations and the market utilization of these innovations. We derived theoretical propositions from existing literature in the field of disruptive innovations with a focus on an ex ante analysis. Furthermore, we applied this preliminary theoretical framework using an in-depth and longitudinal case-study of the amateur photo camera market in Germany to analyze the propositions for disruptive susceptibility on a past disruptive innovation for consistency. Based on the insights of the case study, we refined our theoretical framework. Finally, the refined framework was used from an ex ante perspective to analyze the German electric car market. The results of both case studies indicate that the disruptive susceptibility of established value networks is closely related to the market and organizational maturity. Furthermore, we propose that the overshooting factor of customers might be a conditional but not an imperative factor influencing disruptive susceptibility. Our modified framework would indicate that if the overshooting of customers and other special market conditions are present simultaneously, then the disruptive susceptibility can reach a critical level, and potential disruptive innovations can be successfully introduced into an established value network. Moreover, in our framework, a high degree of disruptive susceptibility would suggest that a low-end market must be present before a disruptive innovation can successfully enter a market. Finally, we propose that the introduction of radical-sustaining innovations by the incumbents in an established value network is a good indicator for a high degree of disruptive susceptibility.

► A new construct of “disruptive susceptibility” applicable as an early-warning system is developed. ► Disruptive susceptibility can be used to analyze markets with regard to their potential readiness for disruptive innovations. ► A longitudinal case study of the German digital cameras market was used to develop the framework. ► The applicability of the framework was tested ex ante in the car market in Germany. ► We propose conditional and accelerating factors that indicate a low to high disruptive susceptibility.