Modeling the CO2 emissions and energy saved from new energy vehicles based on the logistic-curve

The Chinese government has outlined plans for developing new energy vehicles (NEVs) to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper used a logistic-curve to predict the market share of NEVs in the next decade, and then calculated the potential environment benefits of each and every car or the total according to the report of IPCC (2006). The results indicated that NEVs were of benefit in achieving above goals, particularly electric vehicles (EVs). However, they will have a limited impact in the short term. Finally, considering the empirical results and the Chinese reality, this paper proposed corresponding recommendations.

► This paper predicted the number of vehicles in China. ► This paper used a logistic-curve to predict the market share of NEVs. ► The potential environment benefits of every car or the total were calculated. ► China's NEVs would produce more CO2 than those of other countries.