An analysis on the short-term sectoral competitiveness impact of carbon tax in China

Market-based instruments, particularly carbon tax, have recently drawn the attention of Chinese government by their cost-effective contribution to the achievement of China's climate targets. Most of the recent policy proposals have focused on its long-term impact. However, particularly for policy makers, both long term and short term effects of carbon tax would be necessary when determining tax rates. We provided a detailed analysis of short-term impacts of carbon tax on sectoral competitiveness in this paper. We divided China's economy into 36 sectors, based on its 2007 input–output table, in order to examine the ratio of carbon tax added costs to sector GDP. We were thus able to determine the impact level of a carbon tax on each sector. We then divided the sectoral trade impact into domestic competitiveness with regards to foreign imported products and international competitiveness external to the Chinese domestic market. We found that a high tax level (100 yuan/t CO2) may necessitate compensatory measures to certain highly affected industries, and that a low tax rate (10 yuan/t CO2) would generate few competitiveness problems for all industries and may therefore be considered as an appropriate starting point.

► We study short-term sectoral competitiveness impact of carbon tax in China. ► For each sector, we study its carbon cost, GDP share and trade intensity. ► A high rate (100 yuan/t CO2) may require compensatory measures to certain industries. ► A low rate (10 yuan/t CO2) would generate few competitiveness problems.