Russian gas exports have potential to grow through 2020

This paper analyzes the potential for Russian gas export growth through the next decade and concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption. From the production side, the pace of growth depends on the status of gas reserves and, more importantly, on the investment program pursued by the State-owned gas giant Gazprom. From the demand side, evolution depends on the way Russia's wide potential for gas savings is managed. Through this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian gas exports. In the most positive, diversification of exports will be possible. In the most negative, Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.