Carbon charges and natural gas use in China

Substitution of natural gas for coal in China's power sector could significantly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, but gas-fired power is generally more costly than coal-fired power in China today. This paper explores how carbon charges and carbon sequestration technology might tip the balance in favour of gas. The costs of electricity from new coal-fired and gas-fired power plants in China are compared under various assumptions about fuel costs, exchange rates, carbon dioxide charges, and application of carbon sequestration technology. Under average cost conditions today, gas-fired power is roughly two-thirds more costly than coal-fired power. But with a charge of $20/tonne of carbon dioxide, the costs of gas- and coal-fired power would typically be about equal. Over the longer term, carbon sequestration technology could be economical with a carbon dioxide charge of $22/tonne or more under typical cost conditions, but gas with sequestration would not have a clear cost advantage over coal with sequestration unless the charge exceeded $35/tonne.