Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020

As part of the Cancún Agreements, 45 non-Annex I countries have pledged mitigation action plans, of which 16 countries, including the seven major emitting countries, have submitted quantified mitigation actions. Many countries published their business-as-usual (BAU) emissions to which their pledges are connected. This study analyses the expected emission levels from the pledged, quantified actions, and whether these are consistent with achieving the 2 °C target. One of the main findings is that new BAU emission projections have led to about 2.5 GtCO2eq higher emission levels expected from pledges by non-Annex I countries. The emissions for non-Annex I countries as a group would be between 9% and 12% below our 2020 BAU emission projections, for, respectively, the unconditional and conditional pledges. This result might be conservative as we assume countries without quantified pledges follow BAU. This implies that for a medium chance of achieving 2 °C, Annex I countries would need to reduce its emissions by about 50% below 1990 levels by 2020. If Annex I countries as a whole would reduce emissions by 13% to 18% below 1990 levels, as expected from the pledges, the reduction of non-Annex I countries should be 22% to 34% below BAU levels for a medium chance of achieving 2 °C.

► Many countries have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. ► There are upward revisions of greenhouse gas emission projections in many developing countries. ► Higher emissions expected from pledged mitigation action plans of developing countries. ► Achieving the 2 degree Celsius climate goal becomes more difficult. ► The expected emission levels resulting from the pledges are surrounded with large uncertainties.