Vehicle-use intensity in China: Current status and future trend

Vehicle-use intensity (kilometers traveled per vehicle per year or VKT) is important because it directly affects simulation results for vehicle fuel use and emissions, but the poor understanding of VKT in China could significantly affect the accuracy of estimation of total fuel use and CO2 emissions, and thus impair precise evaluation of the effects of associated energy and environmental policies. As an important component of our work on the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impacts (FEEI) model, we collected VKT survey data in China from available sources and conducted additional surveys during 2004 and 2010, from which we derived VKT values and VKT-age functions by vehicle type for China. We also projected the future VKT for China by examining the relationship of vehicle use to per-capita GDP in 20 other countries worldwide. The purpose of this work is to achieve a better understanding of vehicle-use intensity in China and to generate reliable VKT input (current and future VKT levels) for the FEEI model. The VKT results obtained from this work could also benefit other work in the field associated with vehicle energy use and emissions.

► VKT is key in estimating fuel use and emissions, but its knowledge is poor in China. ► We determined VKT in China from available survey data and the surveys we conducted. ► VKT-age functions by vehicle type were derived from the surveys we conducted. ► Future VKT was projected based on vehicle use to per-capita GDP in 20 countries.