Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic assessment of seawater desalination costs fueled by nuclear and fossil fuel

•The paper demonstrated desalination costs under uncertainty conditions.•Uncertainty for nuclear power prevails only during the construction period.•Nuclear desalination proved to be cheaper and with less uncertainty.

The reliable supply of water and energy is an important prerequisite for sustainable development. Desalination is a feasible option that can solve the problem of water scarcity in some areas, but it is a very energy intensive technology. Moreover, the rising cost of fossil fuel, its uncertain availability and associated environmental concerns have led to a need for future desalination plants to use other energy sources, such as renewables and nuclear. Nuclear desalination has thus the potential to be an important option for safe, economic and reliable supply of large amounts of fresh water to meet the ever-increasing worldwide water demand. Different approaches to use nuclear power for seawater desalination have been considered including utilisation of the waste heat from nuclear reactors to further reduce the cost of nuclear desalination. Various options to implement nuclear desalination relay mainly on policy making based on socio-economic and environmental impacts of available technologies. This paper examines nuclear desalination costs and proposes a methodology for exploring interactions between critical parameters.