Biofuels development in China: Technology options and policies needed to meet the 2020 target

China promulgated the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy in 2007, which included sub-targets of 2010 and 2020 for various renewable energy technologies. Almost all the 2010 sub-targets have been met and even surpassed except non-grain fuel ethanol. There is debate surrounding the questions of whether and how the country will be able to meet the 2020 biofuels target. This paper provides the assessment of potential technology pathways to achieve the 2020 target regarding their respective resource potential and supply cost. Barriers and policy options are identified based on broad literatures review. And an overview of biofuels projections is presented to provide insight into the comparison of various policy scenarios. The study shows that China can potentially satisfy non-grain fuel ethanol target by 2020 from technology perspective. But she will probably fall far short of this target if current situations continue. Additional policy efforts are needed. Meanwhile, the target of biodiesel production has high probability to be achieved. However, if given support policies, it will develop better.

► I. Non-grain feedstocks such as cassava, sweet sorghum and sweet potato grown in low productive arable lands or unutilized lands have enough potential to meet ethanol targets in 2020. ► II. If current situations continue, China will fall far short of the 2020 target. ► III. The target of biodiesel production has high probability to be achieved, while, if given support policies, it will develop better. ► IV. Supply cost is one of the major barriers faced by all biofuels pathways. ► V. Various policy measures would be necessary to overcome the costs barriers to biofuels in China.