The improvement of CO2 emission reduction policies based on system dynamics method in traditional industrial region with large CO2 emission

Some traditional industrial regions are characterized by high industrial proportion and large CO2 emission. They are facing dual pressures of maintaining economic growth and largely reducing CO2 emission. From the perspective of study of typological region, taking the typical traditional industrial region—Liaoning Province of China as a case, this study establishes a system dynamics model named EECP and dynamically simulates CO2 emission trends under different conditions. Simulation results indicate, compared to the condition without CO2 emission reduction policies, CO2 emission intensity under the condition of implementing CO2 emission reduction policies of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is decreased by 11% from 2009 to 2030, but the economic cost is high, making the policies implementation faces resistance. Then some improved policies are offered and proved by EECP model that they can reduce CO2 emission intensity after 2021 and decrease the negative influence to GDP, realizing the improvement objects of reducing CO2 emission and simultaneously keeping a higher economy growth speed. The improved policies can provide reference for making and improving CO2 emission reduction policies in other traditional industrial regions with large CO2 emission. Simultaneously, EECP model can provide decision-makers with reference and help for similar study of energy policy.

► We build EECP model for CO2 emission reduction study in traditional industry region. ► By the model, we simulate CO2 emission trend and improve emission reduction policy. ► By improvement, both CO2 emission intensity and economic cost can be largely reduced. ► Besides CO2 emission is reduced effectively, higher GDP increment speed is kept. ► EECP model can be widely used for making and improving regional energy policies.