Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO2 emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO2 emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.

Research highlights► In an E4 framework China's low-carbon development is compared with BAU scenario. ► Low carbon energy/electricity and their related measuring indexes are discussed. ► China's successful experiences on energy efficiency are summarized as EUM and IRSP. ► With them China could save energy by 5.8 Btoe and reduce CO2 by 22.2 Bton until 2030. ► China must restructure its economy and rely on technology innovation for them.