| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 995912 | Energy Policy | 2011 | 13 Pages |
China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40–45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO2 emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.
Research highlights► The effects of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments are analyzed. ► Twelve generation technologies are included in electricity sector. ► China's energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2020 are presented. ► Impacts of CO2 emission reduction on China's economy are studied.
