Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980–2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of −0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

Research Highlights►The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980–2006. ► The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are −0.147 and 0.429, respectively. ► There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.