Investment prospects for geothermal power in El Salvador's electricity market

A mixed-integer optimizing programming model was created to simulate capacity expansion for the electricity market in El Salvador. Various demand scenarios were constructed, under which capacity expansion alternatives were tested. Results showed that possible geothermal projects were able to meet the growing energy needs of El Salvador, while yielding relatively low prices for the end-user. A best case projection for 2020 showed an increased proportion of geothermal generation in the energy mix by 6% compared to the present mix.Much of the current generating plants and planned capacity are distanced from the load center, San Salvador. In order to meet the country's increasing demand, it was found that generating capacity investment should be accompanied by transmission upgrades. Even when current conditions were simulated, transmission congestion appeared to be present. Results from some expansion scenarios showed that transmission congestion increased nodal prices despite the addition of further generating capacity.