Developing a long-term local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan

To tackle global climate stabilization concretely, we have developed a method formulating long-term scenarios towards a low-carbon economy at local level. As a result of the pioneering application of this method to Shiga Prefecture, we have found the following: (i) it is possible to design scenarios for moving towards a low-carbon economy in which CO2 emission is lowered by 30–50% from the 1990 level by 2030, while the prefecture's gross production continues to grow by 1.6% annually; (ii) in order to halve the emission by 2030, socio-economic structural changes as well as technological measures are essential; and (iii) innovative measures at the prefectural level, such as land planning, renewable energy promotion and lifestyle change, play an increasingly important role as the target reduction rate gets higher.