Enforcing the Kyoto Protocol: sanctions and strategic behavior

Because the sanction mechanisms under the Marrakesh Accords affect the economy of complying countries, strategic considerations may play a role in decisions taken by members of the Enforcement Branch of the Kyoto Protocol. We show that members of the Enforcement Branch might face various incentives to not punish a non-compliant country, and that these incentives will differ between members from different countries. We further demonstrate that these differing incentives mean that a certain composition of the Enforcement Branch could decide that one country is not in compliance and impose sanctions, while another composition might decide that the same country is in compliance. Likewise, two different countries that display equivalent forms of non-compliance may receive different verdicts depending on the Enforcement Branch's composition.