Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
998053 International Journal of Forecasting 2016 12 Pages PDF
Abstract

We present a methodology for evaluating and interpreting qualitative forecasts. The minutes of the FOMC meetings are used as a case study. This permits us to observe the forecasting process and determine the information that was used in generating the qualitative forecasts. Our results show that the FOMC examined an extensive amount of GDP and sectoral data and the indicators that usually foreshadow economic developments. Nevertheless, the FOMC did not predict the Great Recession in advance or recognize it quickly.

Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Business, Management and Accounting Business and International Management
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