Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
998053 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2016 | 12 Pages |
Abstract
We present a methodology for evaluating and interpreting qualitative forecasts. The minutes of the FOMC meetings are used as a case study. This permits us to observe the forecasting process and determine the information that was used in generating the qualitative forecasts. Our results show that the FOMC examined an extensive amount of GDP and sectoral data and the indicators that usually foreshadow economic developments. Nevertheless, the FOMC did not predict the Great Recession in advance or recognize it quickly.
Keywords
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Social Sciences and Humanities
Business, Management and Accounting
Business and International Management
Authors
Herman Stekler, Hilary Symington,