Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
998190 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2008 | 11 Pages |
Abstract
A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Business, Management and Accounting
Business and International Management
Authors
Michael P. Clements,