| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 999611 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2013 | 9 Pages |
Abstract
The paper presents a point process model for predicting exact end-of-match scores in the premier league of American football, the National Football League. The hazards of scoring are allowed to vary with team statistics from previous games and/or the bookmaker point spread and over-under. The model is used to generate out-of-sample forecasts, which are evaluated using several criteria, including a Kelly betting strategy. In predicting the results of games, the model is marginally outperformed by the betting market. However, when it is used to forecast exact scores, the model proves to do at least as well as the market.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Business, Management and Accounting
Business and International Management
Authors
Rose D. Baker, Ian G. McHale,