Local perceptions of tourism as indicators of destination decline

This article explores the role of resident's perceptions of impacts as indicators of tourism destination decline using data collected from five coastal communities in Belize, each experiencing a different level of tourism development. First, a theoretical relationship between Butler's [Butler, R. (1980). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution: implications for management of resources. Canadian Geographer, 24, 5–12.] Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) is proposed, drawing on additional well-established theories from the tourism and social science literature. Next, the proposed relationship is tested using resident perception data collected in the Belizean communities. The data are used to predict the position of the study communities in the TALC which, based on the proposed model, range from the late exploration to late development stage. The results show that the data collected in Belize reflect the proposed relationship, suggesting that local perceptions of tourism impacts may be used as indicators of destination decline.