Nonindustrial private landowners, fires, and the wildland-urban interface

We estimate the value to a non-industrial forest landowner of information about the magnitude of fire arrival rates. A simulation based on a model from Amacher et al. [Amacher, G., Malik, A., Haight, R., in press. Not getting burned: the importance of fire prevention in forest management. Land Economics] is used to assess the cost of mistakes made by a landowner when stand management decisions are made without perfect knowledge of the fire arrival probability. These costs are reflected in the higher losses incurred by a landowner if fire arrives during a rotation. The representative landowner studied in the simulation is assumed to value nontimber benefits, and to make rotation age, planting density and fuel reduction decisions. We find that the value of information about the overall magnitude of fire risk is more than twice as high when the landowner underestimates fire risk, rather than overestimating it.