Decoupling effect and sectoral attribution analysis of industrial energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang, China

As the gateway of “the Belt and Road”, it is of great significance for Xinjiang to fulfill the carbon reduction target without compromising the steady socio-economic development. A comprehensive understanding of the decoupling relationships between industrial growth and carbon emissions as well as its driving factors is helpful to make targeted recommendations. In this paper, decoupling analysis, index decomposition analysis, and attribution analysis were applied to analyze the decoupling effect, driving factors, and contributions of sub-sectors to each driving factor, respectively. Some conclusions were drawn. (1) Xinjiang's decoupling relationships between industrial growth and carbon emissions experienced three stages, i.e., “negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and negative decoupling”. Xinjiang's industrial sector was in relatively unsustainable period after 2008. (2) From 2000 to 2014, energy intensity promoted the decoupling process, and industrial structure and energy structure were the main factors which inhibited the decoupling process. But after 2008, all driving factors showed negative influences. (3) After 2008, fuel processing, textile, and mining and quarrying were primarily responsible for the energy intensity's negative influence; fuel processing was primarily responsible for energy intensity's negative influence; production and supply, smelting and pressing of metals, and chemicals were primarily responsible for industrial structure's negative influence. (4) This paper suggests that Xinjiang should make targeted carbon reduction policies at sub-sector level.