Coupling Genetic and Ecological-Niche Models to Examine How Past Population Distributions Contribute to Divergence

SummaryUnderstanding the impact of climate-induced distributional shifts on species divergence, like those accompanying the Pleistocene glacial cycles 1 and 2, requires tools that explicitly incorporate the geographic configuration of past distributions into analyses of genetic differentiation. Depending on the historical distribution of species, genetic differences may accumulate among ancestral source populations, but there is long-standing debate whether displacements into glacial refugia promoted divergence. Here we integrate coalescent-based genetic models 3 and 4 with ecological-niche modeling 5 and 6 to generate expectations for patterns of genetic variation based on an inferred past distribution of a species. Reconstruction of the distribution of a montane grasshopper species during the last glacial maximum suggests that Melanoplus marshalli populations from the sky islands of Colorado and Utah were likely colonized from multiple ancestral source populations. The genetic analyses provide compelling evidence that the historical distribution of M. marshalli—namely, spatial separation of multiple refugia—was conducive to genetic differentiation. The coupling of genetic and ecological-niche modeling provides a new and flexible tool for integrating paleoenvironmental details into species-specific predictions of population structure that can increase our understanding of why the glacial cycles promoted speciation in some taxa and yet inhibited diversification in others 7 and 8.