Local dispersal dynamics determine the occupied niche of the red-listed lichen Seirophora villosa (Ach.) Frödén in a Mediterranean Juniperus shrubland

•In the studied population of the lichen S. villosa mature thalli were rare.•S. villosa showed a very limited propagation ability.•The effect of habitat filtering is negligible.

The red-listed lichen Seirophora villosa is associated with undisturbed coastal dune systems dominated by Juniperus spp. The clustered distribution of this species suggests that propagative traits may be responsible for its conservation status. We tested whether the local distribution of an S. villosa population under undisturbed conditions is limited by habitat filtering or by low dispersal fitness. Using Strip Adaptive Cluster Sampling, we estimated the size of one of the largest undisturbed Italian populations of S. villosa. We considered the abundance of both mature and juvenile thalli in relation to geographical and environmental spaces. Multiple regression on distance matrices models were in accordance with the hypothesis that S. villosa is occupying only a small portion of its colonizable niche because of a very limited propagation ability. Apart from the co-occurrence of mature thalli, the presence of juvenile thalli was independent of pure spatial and environmental factors.