Alien vascular plants in Iceland: Diversity, spatial patterns, temporal trends, and the impact of climate change

The present study provides first comprehensive and up-to-date results on alien plant taxa in Iceland since 1967. We evidenced the presence of 336 alien vascular plant taxa, including 277 casuals and 59 naturalised taxa, two being invasive. The distribution of the alien flora exhibits a clear spatial pattern showing hotspots of occurrence and diversity within areas of major settlement centres. Altitude above sea level and temperature-related variables proved to be the most important factors shaping alien plant distribution in Iceland. Predictive modelling evidenced that arctic areas of Iceland and the Central Highlands are under serious risk of alien plant invasion due to climate change. The results provide crucial information for alien and invasive plant management and contribute data for meta-analyses of invasion processes worldwide.