A pedigree-analysis approach to the descriptive epidemiology of autosomal-recessive disorders

We describe a pedigree-analysis approach to estimating descriptive epidemiological parameters for autosomal-recessive disorders when the ancestral source of the disorder is known. We show that the expected frequency of carriers in a cohort equals the gene contribution of the ancestral source to that cohort, which is equivalent to the direct (additive) genetic relationship of that ancestor to the cohort. Also, the expected incidence of affected foetuses ranges from (1/2)F¯* to F¯*, where F¯* is the mean partial inbreeding coefficient (due to the ancestor) of the cohort. We applied this approach to complex vertebral malformation (CVM) in Holstein–Friesians in Australia, for which the ancestral source is a USA-born bull, Carlin-M Ivanhoe Bell. The estimated frequency of carriers was 2.47% for the 1992-born and 4.44% for the 1997-born cohort of Holstein–Friesian cows in Australia. The estimated incidence of affected foetuses/calves was considerably less than one per thousand, ranging from 0.0024 to 0.0048% for the 1992-born cohort, and from 0.0288 to 0.0576% for the 1997-born cohort. These incidences correspond to expected numbers of affected female foetuses/calves ranging from 2 to 4 for the 1992-born cohort and from 28 to 56 for the 1997-born cohort. This approach is easy to implement using software that is readily available.