Durability of current renderings: A probabilistic analysis

•This research proposed a probabilistic analysis of the degradation state over time.•A sample of 100 rendered facades located in Lisbon is used.•Is based on field data of the state of deterioration of in-service buildings.•The probabilistic analysis is made using a logistic regression technique.•The service life of renders is evaluated based on the probabilistic model proposed.

The durability of constructions is essential to the quality of life in urban spaces. Recently there has been a growing concern of the construction stakeholders with the durability of the materials used and construction sustainability. In this study, using a multinomial logistic regression technique, a probabilistic analysis of the degradation condition of rendered facades, as a function of age and type of mortar, is performed. The probability of the rendered facades reaching the end of their service life, i.e. the moment after which they no longer comply with the minimum performance requirements, is also evaluated. To that purpose, a sample of 100 case studies located in Lisbon, whose degradation state is determined by in situ visual inspections, is used.