Geographic distribution modeling and spatial cluster analysis for equine piroplasms in Greece

Maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and spatial scan statistic were utilized to predict the geographic range and to investigate clusters of infections for equine piroplasms in Greece, using the Maxent and SaTScan programs, respectively. The eastern half of the country represented the culminating area with high probabilities (p > 0.75) of presence of equine piroplasms and encompassed most regions with high concentration of equid host populations. The most important environmental factor that contributed to the ecological niche modeling was land cover followed by temperature. Significant clusters (p < 0.0001) were detected for Babesia caballi and Theileria equi infections in North and Central regions of Greece, respectively, which have significant equine populations. Maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and spatial scan statistic have proved to be useful tools for the surveillance of animal diseases.