Monte Carlo simulations of individual variability and their effects on simulated heat stress using thermoregulatory modeling

This paper addresses a variable-dependence (VD) MC method developed based on a previous attempt (VI-MC method) (J. Therm. Biol. 29 (2004), 515) to be incorporated in a thermoregulatory model. Simulated individuals with anthropometrics by VI- and VD-MC methods for US Army population were compared using principal component analysis and Fisher's exact tests. The results indicated that VD-MC data represented overall body size as the primary component and body shape as the secondary component that were more realistic and similar to the measured US Army data (p>0.05) rather than VI-MC data (p<0.05). Such differences consequently affected individual thermoregulatory responses to simulated heat stress. The VD-MC method provides a more realistic representation of individual variability and thus underpins more realistic predictions of individual thermoregulatory responses.