Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
415748 | Computational Statistics & Data Analysis | 2006 | 20 Pages |
Abstract
A new bootstrap procedure to obtain prediction densities of returns and volatilities of GARCH processes is proposed. Financial market participants have shown an increasing interest in prediction intervals as measures of uncertainty. Furthermore, accurate predictions of volatilities are critical for many financial models. The advantages of the proposed method are that it allows incorporation of parameter uncertainty and does not rely on distributional assumptions. The finite sample properties are analyzed by an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the technique is applied to the Madrid Stock Market index, IBEX-35.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Computational Theory and Mathematics
Authors
Lorenzo Pascual, Juan Romo, Esther Ruiz,