Conceptual framework for assessment and management of ecosystem impacts of climate change

A conceptual framework is proposed for assessing and managing the ecosystem impacts of climate change. The framework can be used by ecosystem managers to systematically assess the potential adverse impacts of future climate change on ecosystems, and identify best adaptation strategies for alleviating those impacts. The proposed framework: (1) determines the acceptability of the current state of the ecosystem; (2) specifies climate change scenarios; (3) assesses the ecosystem impacts of the scenarios; and (4) identifies the best adaptation strategies for alleviating unacceptable impacts of the climate change scenarios. Concepts and methods employed in the framework include: (1) limits of acceptable change; (2) scenario analysis; (3) simulation; (4) Delphi method; (5) decision making under risk and uncertainty; (6) stochastic dominance; (7) multiple attribute evaluation; (8) Bayesian statistical inference; and (9) adaptive management. Implementation of the framework requires considerable technical, scientific, and other data/information that may not be available at this time, but is likely to become available in the future. It is recommended that a pilot program be initiated to test the proposed framework in a few targeted publicly managed ecosystems for which the requisite ecosystem data/information are available or can be readily obtained. Results of the pilot program would provide insights into the pros and cons of the framework and the conditions under which it is likely to be feasible.