An integrated sustainable development approach to modeling the eco-environmental effects from urbanization

Urbanization induces detrimental effects on the eco-environment that are beginning to be extensively described. However, the adoption of suitable indicators and reliable methods still requires attention to provide a basis for a more accurate understanding of eco-environmental effects from urbanization. The aggregated index system representing the coupling relationships between urbanization and eco-environment was introduced and an integrated sustainable development approach (ISD) to simulate and evaluate the integrative effects was developed in this paper. The ISD consists of modules of the coupling relationship assessments, systematic analysis of potential eco-environmental changes, and sustainability evaluation. An interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and grey relative technique (GRT) are used to analyze the systematical structure and assess the coupling relationships. A system dynamics model (SD) and artificial neural network (ANN) are used to simulate the potential environmental changes and compare the sustainability, respectively. An application study of Jiangsu province in China was performed, where the general eco-environmental integrity is under significant urbanization pressure. The potential eco-environmental scenarios from 2010 to 2015 under natural, populated, economic, spatial and social urbanization patterns were simulated and analyzed. The result reveals that the urbanization sustainability may be met on condition that either populated urbanization or social urbanization pattern is adopted in Jiangsu province, China. The aggregated indexes and ISD may help local authorities better understand and address the complex coupling relationship, and develop improved regional environmental management strategies that better balance urbanization and eco-environmental conservation.