A discrete space model for continuous space dispersal processes

The simulation of dispersal processes in landscapes over large spatial extents is challenging because of the large difference in geographical scale between overwhelmingly dominant localised dispersal events, and rare long-distance dispersal events which typically drive overall rates of spread. While localised dispersal may point to high resolution individual level models, long-distance dispersal events are likely to involve much coarser grid-based models. In this paper we propose a discrete space (i.e., grid-based) model for dispersal processes in continuous space. We start by illustrating the behaviour of continuous space walks when their movement is discretised to a grid. The importance of short time period cell-to-cell moves which return a walk to its previous grid cell location is identified. A conceptual model which uses a Markov chain buffer phase between cells to replicate the observed behaviour of discretised continuous space walks is proposed. Analysis of the Markov chain shows that it can be parameterised using just two parameters in addition to the dispersal kernel. An algorithm for implementation of the proposed model is presented. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed mechanism produces good matches to continuous space dispersal processes with both exponential and heavy-tailed dispersal kernels.