Modelling regulating ecosystem services trade-offs across landscape scenarios in Třeboňsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic

This study aims to contribute to current discussions on ecosystem-service related decision-making by conducting an assessment of trade-offs between alternative land use scenarios in the Třeboňsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, the Czech Republic, in terms of regulating ecosystem services provision. To achieve this, we created three land use change scenarios (Business-as-Usual, Protection, and Exploitation, respectively), based on participation of local stakeholders. Consequently, we evaluated the levels of two vital wetland regulating ecosystem services – climate regulation, and water quality improvement – under each scenario using the InVEST modelling suite, additionally performing an economic assessment for climate regulation. The highest level of climate regulation was achieved under the Protection scenario (5.29% improvement of carbon stocks, with corresponding economic value of 16.6 million EUR). The impact of the Exploitation scenario on climate regulation was the most substantial, with net loss of carbon stocks representing 13.58% decrease in comparison with the current state (40.0 million EUR). The change in water quality in terms of nitrogen discharge ranged between an exacerbation of 7.87% and an improvement of 15.55% among all three scenarios. Our results showed that noticeable trade-offs occur between the scenarios in terms of regulating ecosystem services, which should be accounted for in local landscape conservation decisions. The Třeboňsko Biosphere Reserve has been frequently used as a pilot area for socio-ecological research and we discuss implications of ecosystem services as an integrative concept for the long-term socio-ecological research in this area.