Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
4375988 Ecological Modelling 2014 10 Pages PDF
Abstract

•Small scale, high resolution SDMs for freshwater ecosystems are accurate.•Subcatchment predictors improve model performance for some environmental variables.•The use of diverse predictors improves model performance and accuracy.•Predicted to actual occurrence accordance is highest in integrated models.•Freshwater SDMs have potential to inform conservation and management.

Species distribution models are increasingly applied to freshwater ecosystems. Most applications use large scales, coarse resolutions and anthropocentric modelling extents, thus not being able to consider important environmental predictors and ecological processes detectable within a catchment and at finer scales. Moreover, high resolution predictions of species distribution in streams can help improve our understanding of how environmental variables within a catchment affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates. We built models at a resolution of 25 m × 25 m for a 488 km2 catchment in northern Germany to determine whether the spatial approach in which environmental predictors are implemented in the model affects the overall performance. We used predictors from four different categories relevant to freshwater ecosystems: bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic and land use. Two spatial approaches were tested: a local one, or grid based and a cumulative for the upstream area, or subcatchment specific. Models were evaluated in terms of model performance and accuracy in order to identify the approach best suited for each category, as well as the most important predictor in each. In the case of the land use category, the subcatchment approach made a significant difference, increasing performance. A final model, calibrated with the selected predictors, resulted in the highest model performance and accuracy. Our results indicate that species distribution models perform well and are accurate at high resolutions, within small catchments. We conclude that catchment wide models, especially when using predictors from multiple categories, have the potential to significantly improve modelling framework of species distribution in freshwater ecosystems. The information produced by accurate, small scale, species distribution models can guide managers and conservation practitioners, by predicting the effects of management decisions within a catchment. We suggest that highly resolved predictors be applied in models using the catchment approach.

Related Topics
Life Sciences Agricultural and Biological Sciences Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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