Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process

•The definition and intention of water ecological carrying capacity (WECC).•We establish the system dynamics model of water ecological carrying capacity.•We achieve the quantitative evaluation of water ecological carrying capacity.•Development tendency of WECC is predicted under six planning schemes.

In this study, system dynamics (SD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were combined to establish an evaluation index system and a system dynamics simulation model for the regional water ecological carrying capacity (WECC). Six proposed planning schemes were used to address the existing water ecological environment problems in the Siping area of Jilin Province, China. The development trends in the WECC during the years 2008–2020 were simulated and evaluated under different planning schemes. The results showed that the water ecological environment in the Siping area would develop into a “poor carrying” state in 2020 with a WECC index of 0.1819 if current social development modes remain unchanged. However, a “good carrying” state with a corresponding WECC index of 0.6652 could be achieved in 2020 if the 5th scheme is applied, which is an integrated planning scheme that combines changes in water-saving, pollution control, water resource exploitation and economic development. The results of this study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of the social economy and the water eco-environment in the Siping area.