A simulation modelling approach to forecast establishment and spread of Bactrocera fruit flies

This paper reports on the design, construction and testing of a novel simulation model for the establishment and spread of fruit fly. The model permits the investigation of spatio-temporal development of a fruit fly outbreak under variable environmental conditions and taking account of the location, availability and suitability of preferred food, and of the existence of obstacles to spread. Implementation of the simulator is designed to make it suitable for use at various levels of outbreak management and biosecurity. Initial efforts at validating the predictions against actual historical outbreak data indicate that the simulator could be an useful tool to support decision making.

► The article reports on the development of a fruit fly simulator for biosecurity. ► It includes 5 models: life cycle, spatial, dispersal, host seasonality, and weather. ► Its implementation is focused on simplicity, scalability, usability, and detail. ► Its evaluation includes verification and validation based on an actual outbreak.