Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives.

► The potential for management objectives to evolve through time. ► Uncertainty in management objectives is framed in terms of structural uncertainty. ► Uncertainty in objectives is linked to stochastically to structural uncertainty. ► Value function includes structural uncertainty and uncertainty about objectives. ► Different forms for the uncertainty about objectives are discussed.