Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species: Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand

► Modelling the spread of invasive species could assist with managing their spread and impacts. ► Stochastic dynamic spread models have been used to study the patterns of spread of invasive species. ► A derivative of pAUC, the volume under the curve, is used to measure overall model performance. ► Through time, stochastic dynamic models maintain high sensitivity at a cost of ever decreasing specificity. ► The tendency of stochastic dynamic spread models to deteriorate progressively, limits their projection abilities.