Modelling the effects of extreme events on the dynamics of the amphipod Corophium orientale

The brackish water amphipod Corophium orientale is the dominant macroinvertebrate species in the upper Mira estuary, a small mesotidal system located in the southwest coast of Portugal. As climate changes will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts, these will have a negative effect on benthic estuarine invertebrates, namely C. orientale. In order to understand the effects of these events on C. orientale, a dynamic model, based on published information and calibrated with field data, was developed and different scenarios were tested.For model construction, the annual development of three cohorts of C. orientale, their growth rates, and the establishment of the timing of each cohort rise and extinction are introduced. This structure can be repeated indefinitely, for years, and few parameters are required. The model simulations highlight the need for refuge areas that enable a fast recovery of the amphipod population after an extreme event and the recolozination of the affected areas.