The puzzle of North America's Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction patterns: Test of new explanation yields unexpected results

Although Late Pleistocene extinctions disproportionately affected larger mammalian species, numerous smaller species were also lost. To date, no satisfactory explanation has been presented to account for this pattern. Beginning with the assumption that human predation caused the extinctions, we offer and test the first such explanatory hypothesis, which is predicated on considering more realistic functional response forms (i.e., those that allow for predator interference or prey sharing). We then test the hypothesis via a one-predator, six-prey ecological model that maintains transparency, minimalism of design, and maximal constraint of parameters. Results indicate that altering assumptions about one cornerstone of ecological modeling (i.e., functional response) fails to produce qualitative differences in survival–extinction outcomes—even in conjunction with a wide range of capture efficiency permutations. This unexpected finding suggests that no reasonable form of predation alone is capable of producing the survival–extinction pattern observed. We conclude that the matter of causation and the conclusions of previous Late Pleistocene extinction models remain far less certain than many have assumed.