Optimisation of tree mortality models based on growth patterns

The optimisation increased the performance of the classical ST models by 61-153%. Surprisingly, the model without any stress memory showed the highest performance and thus exceeded the performance of more “realistic” models, i.e., those considering a stress memory. Despite these tremendous improvements, the optimised ST models did not attain the performance of the logistic regression models. Therefore, we conclude that even optimised classical ST models are inferior to regression models with regard to predicting the time of tree death. A considerable change in the simulated forest succession is to be expected if classical ST models that are still used in many gap models are replaced by logistic regression models based on field data.