Assessment of socio-economic vulnerability under sea level rise coupled with storm surge in the Chongming County, Shanghai

The sea level rise (SLR) caused by global climate change will have a great impact on the coastal areas. This will affect significantly the socio-economic development in the region. The study of the responses of coastal systems to climate change, assessment of the effects of climate change on the coastal systems, and proposal of feasible mitigation strategies are important prerequisites for the sustainable socio-economic development. In this study, the possible impact of the SLR coupled with storm surge caused by climate change on the socio-economic development in the region was analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model using the Chongming County in the municipality of Shanghai as a case study. An index system for vulnerability assessment was developed, in which the flooding depth, population density, GDP per capita, GDP per land unit, rate of flood damage, and fiscal revenue were selected as the key indicators. A quantitative spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator and calculating and grading the vulnerability index. The vulnerability assessment was performed under the scenario of the SLR coupled with storm surge and assuming the present infrastructure for three periods: 2030, 2050, and 2100. The projected vulnerability assessment for 2030 shows that the SLR coupled with storm surge will have little impact on the socio-economic development as 98.3% of the areas show no vulnerability. By 2050, the areas with moderate and high vulnerabilities will account for 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively of the total area, while by 2100, 15.1%, 7.9%, and 3.9% of the area will be low, moderately, and highly vulnerable, respectively. The SPRC model and the methodology for vulnerability assessment developed in this study can objectively and quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the socio-economic development in the Chongming County under the impact of the SLR coupled with storm surge caused by climate change. The results from this study indicate that mitigation measures should be considered in the future for securing the socio-economic development in the region.