Modeling the interannual variation and response to climate change scenarios in gross and net primary productivity of Pinus elliottii forest in subtropical China

sIn this study, the BIOME-BGC model, a biogeochemical model, was used and validated to estimate GPP (Gross Primary Productivity) and NPP (Net Primary Productivity) of Pinus elliottii forest in red soil hilly region and their responses to inter-annual climate variability during the period of 1993–2004 and climate change scenarios in the future. Results showed that the average total GPP and NPP were 1941 g C m−2a−1 and 695 g C m−2a−1, and GPP and NPP showed an increasing trend during the study period. The precipitation was the key factor controlling the GPP and NPP variation. Scenario analysis showed that doubled CO2 concentration would not benefit for GPP and NPP with less than 1.5% decrease. When CO2 concentration fixed, GPP responded positively to precipitation change only, and temperature increase by 1.5°C with precipitation increase, while NPP responded positively to precipitation change only. When CO2 concentration was doubled and climate was changed, GPP and NPP responded positively to precipitation change, and GPP also responded positively to temperature increase by 1.5°C with precipitation change.