Examining the relationship between total species richness and single island palaeo- and neo-endemics

Recently, Emerson and Kolm (2005) hypothesized that diversity begets speciation (DBS hypothesis). The relationship between total species richness and single island endemic diversity (as a proportion of the total species richness of the island) has been used as evidence for the DBS hypothesis. This relationship has been documented in oceanic archipelagos, but many criticisms have been raised on whether this relationship truly supports the DBS hypothesis. In this study we tested if this hypothesis holds in the Aegean archipelago (a continental archipelago with continuous human presence over millennia). Endemism in the Aegean includes mainly neo-endemic species but also relictual populations of formerly more widespread species (i.e. palaeo-endemics). Contrary to the DBS hypothesis, we found that total species richness was not significantly correlated to single island endemics (neither neo-endemics nor palaeo-endemics) as a proportion of the island flora. Furthermore, we found that neo-endemic diversity (either as species richness or as a proportion of the islands flora) is mainly correlated to island maximum elevation, while area and isolation were less important. So if this ratio is indeed an index of speciation, then an alternative explanation might be that elevation (interpreted as a proxy for habitat heterogeneity) is the driver of speciation in our case. Palaeo-endemics, on the other hand, were present in only six of the largest islands in the Aegean and their diversity was strongly correlated only with island area, perhaps implying that larger islands support larger population sizes that buffer stochastic extinctions risks.