Using distribution models to test alternative hypotheses about a species' environmental limits and recovery prospects

Our burn intensity index of gamekeeper activity was highly correlated with climatic suitability within the best 25% of 10 km squares by modelled habitat suitability, negatively associated with the productivity data and associated with a decrease in abundances between 1998 and 2004. Gamekeeper activity may be keeping hen harriers out of the most climatically suitable areas with habitat similar to that which they currently occupy within Britain and or keeping the population numbers too low and isolated for the natural re-expansion of the species into parts of the range where it was historically extirpated.