Savanna herbivore dynamics in a livestock-dominated landscape. II: Ecological, conservation, and management implications of predator restoration

Conserving African wildlife in human-occupied landscapes requires management intervention that is guided by a mechanistic understanding of how anthropogenic factors influence large-scale ecological processes. In Laikipia District, a dry savanna region in northern Kenya where wildlife share the landscape with humans and livestock, we examined why five of nine wild ungulate species suffered protracted declines on properties receiving the greatest conservation investment. Of 10 alternative causes examined, only an increase in predation, interacting with brief periods of high and low rainfall, was consistent with the timing, synchrony, duration and species composition of observed ungulate declines.The principal factor causing predation to increase was a shift in land use from cattle ranching, under which predators and plains zebras were severely suppressed, to wildlife conservation and ecotourism. This prompted a 5-fold increase in plains zebra abundance, and created a demand for living predators. Plains zebras ultimately comprised more than half the available prey biomass, and supported a substantial predator community, but were not limited by predators. We infer that increasing predation pressure caused predator-susceptible prey species to decline, via mechanisms that included apparent competition.Herbivore dynamics in Laikipia shared features with previously reported responses by prey communities to predator manipulation in Kruger and Serengeti National Parks. All featured one or a few numerically dominant herbivore species, which were primarily limited by rainfall and density, supporting a predator community that in turn limited the abundance of other prey species. In each case, predation had a profound effect, but on only a subset of prey species, reducing the evenness component of prey diversity.The presence of cattle in the landscape may affect predator–prey dynamics in both direct and indirect ways, depending on rainfall. In extreme years (floods or drought), episodic die-offs temporarily subsidize scavenging predators. In low rainfall years, competition between plains zebras and cattle, which negligibly support predators, may indirectly limit predator carrying capacity. Consequently, removal of cattle may favor not only zebras, but also their predators, and further depress predator-susceptible prey species.