Development of vaccination strategies for the management of rabies in African wild dogs

The standard objective of a vaccination strategy is to reduce the reproductive ratio, R0, defined as the number of secondary host infections arising directly from introduction of a single infected individual into an otherwise fully susceptible population, to below 1. This ensures that only very small outbreaks are likely to arise. However, this objective usually requires a high level of vaccination coverage that is often expensive and logistically difficult to achieve. For the purposes of conserving rare species that are threatened by outbreaks of infectious disease, population persistence may be assured by a vaccination strategy designed to suppress only the largest outbreaks of disease that reduce the population to below a minimum viable population size. Such strategies targeting only a viable minimal ‘core’ of the population are likely to be logistically less demanding. Here we explore how these core vaccination strategies might be designed for African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), an endangered canid species whose remaining populations are threatened by rabies outbreaks. We develop and analyse a population viability model with an explicit epidemiological model embedded within it. The model predicts that core vaccination campaigns, using vaccines that provide two years of immunity, and targets 30–40% of individuals within a population every 1–2 years would be successful in ensuring persistence of small populations, and required coverage levels can be even lower in larger populations. This strategy appears robust to synchronized introduction of rabies into packs, possible Allee effects, and the use of vaccines providing only one year of immunity.