Reintroducing the red-billed curassow in Brazil: Population viability analysis points to potential success

ABSTRACTReintroduction can be enhanced by data from long-term post-release monitoring, which allows for modeling opportunities such as population viability analysis (PVA). PVA-relevant data were gathered via long-term monitoring of reintroduced red-billed curassows at the Guapiaçu Ecological Reserve (REGUA), located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over 25 months. In the present article, we (1) assess the robustness of the reintroduction plan, (2) evaluate the viability of the current reintroduced population, and (3) examine mitigation options to increase the viability of this population. VORTEX indicates that the initial plan, fully implemented, was likely to establish a viable population at REGUA. The current population is unviable; the best mitigation strategies are to eliminate hunting altogether, or at least reduce it by half, and to supplement ten immature pairs in 2015. A positive long-term outcome at REGUA is still possible; we encourage the Brazilian government and private stakeholders to consider population supplementation, both to achieve success at REGUA and to improve the evidence base for future reintroductions.